MLB Best Bets Today June 27
Nine games are on the MLB card for today, including a few early starts to send teams off into the weekend. We’ve got one debut with impressive Twins prospect David Festa out in the desert to take on the Diamondbacks in one of those matinee matchups. Otherwise, it’s a pretty status quo kind of night around the league.
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Cleveland Guardians (-118, 9) at Kansas City Royals
8:10 p.m. ET
Ben Lively and Michael Wacha are the listed hurlers for this one in Kansas City between the Guardians and Royals. It is a big four-game series for the slumping Royals, who are nine games back in the AL Central heading into this one.
Cleveland got in late, with a 1:30 a.m. CT arrival after a hugely emotional series against the Orioles where it did feel like the Guardians had a little bit of extra juice. One of the many interesting things about this game is that the Royals are -130 for the 1st 5, but an underdog for the full game. Cleveland’s bullpen is pretty taxed overall, but Kansas City’s bullpen has performed very poorly.
However, the Royals 1st 5 line and the matchup for their offense did direct towards a play in this game and it is the Royals 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs at +105. Lively is a guy that I am actively looking to fade. He’s running a .263 BABIP with an 87.3% LOB% and those both seem very unsustainable with his strikeout rate. Cleveland is a top-tier defensive team, but Lively has 13 strikeouts over his last four starts covering more than 20 innings. I’m not buying it.
He’s allowed a 91.3% Z-Contact% in his last five starts, so teams aren’t swinging and missing in the zone, which is often an indicator of stuff quality. He’s allowed at least a 41.2% Hard Hit% in each of his last five starts. It will be warm and humid at Kauffman Stadium today, where the ball typically carries well to the power alleys in the summertime.
I’m just not a Lively believer and he’s ripe for a pretty big blow-up with some of the underlying metrics, especially that super low strikeout rate. He’s got a 3.29 ERA with a 4.73 FIP over his last five starts. Overall, he ranks in the Bottom 7% for average exit velocity, 15th percentile in Chase%, and 10th percentile in Whiff%. Also, up until recently, he’s been more of a fly ball guy and that is a problem in warmer weather.
Pick: Royals 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+105)
Detroit Tigers (-148, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
Jack Flaherty has another showcase start for trade suitors as he takes on the Angels tonight. It will be minor league call-up Davis Daniel for the home team against the visiting Tigers. Daniel is an intriguing arm to me in this one and he’ll be the focus of my handicap.
The 27-year-old right-hander got a cup of coffee with the Halos last year and allowed three runs on seven hits over 12.1 innings with nine strikeouts and nine walks. This season, though, Daniel has 82 strikeouts in 76 innings for Triple-A Salt Lake. The 5.33 ERA is not going to impress anybody, but he does have a 3.73 FIP with a 24.3% K%.
The Pacific Coast League (PCL) is brutal for pitchers. Most of the ballparks play like Coors Field, either due to extreme heat or high elevation. Teams are averaging 5.8 runs per game and the collective slash line is .267/.359/.445. Not to mention, there are only 10 teams, so you’re seeing the same hitters a lot over the course of the season.
While Daniel has struggled from an ERA standpoint, I really like his strikeout numbers. Pitcher List also put out a tweet showcasing his fastball and slider and the potential upside of those two pitches against a bad Tigers lineup.
— Ben Palmer (@benjpalmer) June 27, 2024If you're in a deep league looking for a pitcher to stream, Davis Daniel is kind of interesting
MiLB numbers haven't been great (though he does have a 3.73 FIP), but the FB and SL have both looked good and he's against the Tigers who have the 5th-worst team wOBA in the league pic.twitter.com/cl6QCMGmxY
The Tigers have a 25% K% against righties over the last 30 days and they have just a .278 wOBA with a 79 wRC+. I feel like we’re going to see Daniel able to work fairly deep in this game and pitching a whole lot closer to sea level is likely to add some more tilt to his pitches.
I like his strikeout prop Over tonight, especially at plus money.
Pick: Davis Daniel Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
