UFC Best Bets:
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess offers his UFC best bets for theFight Nightcard and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts on every fight on the docket.
BET HISTORY
UFC 303: 4-2 (+3.23 Units, +49.85% ROI)
Article History: 56-67 (-2.7 Units, -1.99% ROI)
PICK’ EM HISTORY
UFC 303: 7-5 (58.33%)
Article History: 113-85 (57.07%)
MAIN EVENT
Rose “Thug Rose” Namajunas (-230) vs Tracy Cortez (+190)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-315) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+230)
After losing the UFC Women’s Strawweight belt for the second time, Rose Namajunas took some time off and jumped up a weight class to flyweight. She lost her debut fight vs. Manon Fiorot as an underdog and rebounded with a win versus Amanda Ribas as the favorite. Rose did not have a big frame at 115 pounds, and at 125, she is downright small. She makes up for her physical limitations with a strong mindset, crisp striking, and excellent grappling. To put it plainly, she is an extremely high-level mixed martial artist with very few weaknesses outside of her stature. She is not much of a finisher but instead wins with volume striking and opportunistic takedowns. By the numbers, she is not an accurate striker, but she makes up for the deficiency with an impressive 63% significant strike defense rate.
Tracy Cortez has fought once in the last 18 months. That fight was a decision win vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius. She has been in the UFC since 2019 and has a 5-0 record in the organization. She was thrust into this fight on short notice because Namajunas’ original opponent, Maycee Barber, had to withdraw. Cortez was already in camp, originally scheduled to face Miranda Maverick next week. Despite rising to the occasion in all her previous UFC fights, Tracy Cortez finds herself the underdog for the first time in the UFC. Additionally, she has never been in a main event and has never competed in a five-round fight. She is a good wrestler and has landed multiple takedowns in four out of five of her UFC fights.
The odds are rightfully stacked against Cortez in this bout; she has significantly less time in the octagon than her opponent, she has faced a much softer strength of schedule, and she was originally preparing for a three-round fight (this five-rounder is taking place at elevation). As much as I believe in Cortez’s long-term potential to be a contender, I do not believe we will see her reach her potential versus the battle-hardened Rose Namajunas.
FIGHT WINNER: Rose Namajunas
UFC BEST BET: Parlay piece(x2), see below
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Santiago Ponzinibbio (-192) vs Muslim “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov (+160)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-125)
For the first time since 2017, Santiago Ponzinibbio will enter the octagon as the younger fighter. At age 37, he is hardly a young man. However, compared to Muslim Salikhov at age 40 he seems young and spry. Ponzinibbio has given a ton to the UFC in his 17-fight career in the organization and, at one point, had a seven-fight win streak. Additionally, he was the champion of the Ultimate Fighter Brazil Season 2 back in 2013. He has notable victories versus Sean Strickland, Mike Perry, and Neil Magny.
Early in his career, he was a power puncher who won via knockout more often than not, but lately, he has been having trouble getting his hand raised in any fashion. He has lost three of his last four fights (two via split decision) and was most recently knocked out by Kevin Holland 15 months ago. He is comfortable in deep water versus high-quality opponents, but his best days are definitely in the rearview mirror. That said, I believe he still is capable of putting out impressive performances in the right matchups.
Muslim Salikhov is a striker who has gone blow for blow with some of the heaviest hitters in the UFC’s welterweight division. Like his opponent, Salikhov has also lost three of his last four fights. He lost via brutal knockout versus Randy Brown in February of this year. Despite not entering the UFC until he was well into his 30s, Salikhov still has been able to deliver some highlight finishes and put up some solid fighter statistics. He has landed over half his strikes thrown while avoiding 62% of what comes back at him. He also surprises opponents with takedowns, averaging 1.27 per 15 minutes in the UFC cage.
This fight is an interesting handicap. Pure power and striking volume are in Ponzinibbio’s favor; however, creativity, craftiness, wrestling, and defense are all on Salikhov’s side. Ponzinibbio should win, but I have trouble betting on him because he gets hit a lot. 4.67 significant strikes absorbed per minute could spell trouble versus the “King of Kung Fu.”
FIGHT WINNER: Santiago Ponzinibbio
UFC BEST BET: Salikhov OVER 41.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
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Drew Dober (-105) vs Jean “Lord Assassin” Silva (-115)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+105)
Drew Dober ascended in the UFC lightweight division with his hands. He is 13-9, with 1 NC while on the UFC roster, and nine of his victories came via KO. He last fought in December and was neutralized by Renato Moicano’s ground game. Overall, Dober is an entertainer. He throws a ton of strikes and absorbs a ton of strikes. Despite having a wrestling background, Dober usually avoids grappling exchanges and prefers to let his hands tell the story of the fight.
Jean Silva is a fast riser in the UFC. He fought TWO WEEKS ago versus Charles Jourdain at featherweight (but he did miss weight) and won via spectacular KO in round 2. That was the first KO loss of Jourdain’s 23-fight MMA career, an impressive accomplishment for Silva’s second trip to the UFC octagon. In his first fight with the Organization, Silva won via first-round knockout. In 15 career fights, Silva has seen the judges scorecards three times, twice in losses early in his career, and he won via decision in Contender Series.
Some books opened with Dober as a slight favorite, but now nearly every book has Silva as the favorite. I understand why, Silva has back to back highlight KOs and comes from one of the hottest gyms in the UFC; Fighting Nerds. That said, Dober has fought the best of the best, and Silva is going up a weight class to take this fight on short notice after being active two weeks ago. Silva looks like one of those guys with special ability, but the circ*mstances around this fight make it a difficult handicap. Short notice at altitude for a relative newcomer is a terrible situational spot.
FIGHT WINNER: Drew Dober
UFC BEST BET: Parlay: Fight NOT to Start Round 3/Namajunas to win (+130), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.3
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Gabriel “Marretinha” Bonfim (-345) vs Ange “The Last Ninja” Loosa (+275)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
Gabriel Bonfim is a dominant grappler who won via submission in Contender Series and in his first two fights as a member of the UFC roster. However, last time out, he was humbled by the tenacious Nicolas Dalby. His early attempts at finishing the fight faltered and he gassed out, Dalby destroyed him in the clinch and won via knees + ground punches. That said, Bonfim is only 26 years old and is 15-1. Most fighters have a humbling experience on the way up, and I believe this guy can still climb to the top if he takes the right lessons from his loss. Patience, energy management, and not underestimating your opponents are key in sustaining a long and successful UFC career. His brother Ismael was on a similar trajectory but lost to Benoit Saint-Denis. He recovered from the defeat and took care of business vs. Vinc Pinchel. Despite being mostly a grappler, Gabriel Bonfim does strike with volume and lands nearly five significant strikes per minute in the cage despite having an accuracy number of just 40%. That said he still has a slight negative strikes landed/absorbed differential.
Like his opponent, Ange Loosa is also a very active striker, landing over six significant strikes per minute. Also, like his opponent, he has a negative strikes landed/absorbed differential. He has good takedown defense in the UFC, 90%, but he has not faced anyone like Bonfim. Ange Loosa is very strong and hard to control in the cage, but I think his 10-3, 1 NC record is mostly smoke and mirrors. In the UFC, he is 2-1, but both of his victories are against the bottom of the UFC’s lightweight roster.
I expect Bonfim to be able to get this fight on the ground and I expect him to show a more mature game plan than he did versus Nicolas Dalby. Ange Loosa could potentially be out of the organization in short order if he does not perform here, and I do not think he is ready for Bonfim’s slick submission game. Loosa has, at times, found himself in prolonged clinch exchanges. Against Bonfim, even that is dangerous.
FIGHT WINNER: Gabriel Bonfim
UFC BEST BET: Parlay: Gabriel Bonfim/Rose Namajunas (-118), Risk 1.18 Units to Win 1
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Christian “CeeRod” Rodriguez (-230) vs Julian “Juicy J” Erosa (+190)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+114)
Christian Rodriguez is the hype killer, he has taken the “and 0” from the end of his last three opponents records. He was the underdog in two out of those three fights. Overall, he is 4-1 in the UFC, with the loss coming as a late replacement opponent in his UFC debut versus Jonathan Pearce. He fought three times at 135 pounds, but missed weight twice which was perhaps a bit of gamesmanship versus young prospects, however his last fight was at 145 pounds and he won as a +165 underdog versus Isaac Dulgarian. This matchup with Julian Erosa at 145 pounds will present a new dynamic. Not only is Rodriguez a big favorite, he is fighting a vastly more experienced fighter in Julian Erosa. Rodriguez is an underrated grappler and has almost exclusively fought wrestlers/BJJ practitioners in the UFC octagon.
Julian Erosa is a real fighter’s fighter. Like many of the veteran fighters on this card, he has lasted a long time in the UFC because he is constantly in entertaining scraps. He throws a ton of strikes, he gets hit a lot, and only four of his fourteen UFC fights have gone to the judges’ scorecards. He won his last fight, but before that he lost via knockout in consecutive bouts. In total, he has been knocked out six times in the UFC and seven times as a professional. Lucky for Erosa, Rodriguez has not shown to be much of a power puncher in the UFC. This is Erosa’s THIRD stint in the UFC after he found his way back onto the roster after being dropped twice since 2015.
I believe Christian Rodriguez is a very good fighter, with a fight IQ far beyond someone with just 12 professional bouts. However, a lot of his UFC success has come through outlasting young, hyped-up prospects. Erosa, on the other hand, is a veteran who is not afraid to go in deep waters and is unlikely to gas himself out. Six of his seven UFC victories have come as an underdog. The tables have definitely turned on Rodriguez in this fight. He is now the hyped prospect with a relatively unproven resume when contrasted with Erosa’s fight ledger.
FIGHT WINNER: Julian Erosa
UFC BEST BET: Julian Erosa (+190), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.9
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Cody Brundage (+145) vs Abdul Razak “Judo Thunder” Alhassan (-170)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+124) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-160)
Cody Brundage seemingly has one goal: to get into the UFC octagon as much as possible. He has had nine UFC fights in under three years with the organization making him one of the more active UFC middleweights in that period. He is an aggressive fighter with only three of his sixteen professional fights reaching the final bell. He definitely does not have the highest fight IQ, but he did look good in a loss versus Bo Nickal at UFC 300. He managed to make it deep into round two before getting submitted in a fight most expected to be over before the first break. He has a solid wrestling base and an underdeveloped striking arsenal.
Alhassan is 6-6 in the UFC with five losses in his last seven fights, with both wins coming versus middleweight doormats. Early in his career he was known for routinely delivering highlight knockouts, but at age 38, it’s safe to say he has slowed down a little bit. He will have a decisive striking advantage versus Brundage, but his ground game is suspect, despite having the “Judo Thunder” nickname.
FIGHT WINNER: Cody Brundage
UFC BEST BET: Cody Brundage (+145), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.45
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Joshua “The Fearless” Van (-245) vs Charles “InnerG” Johnson (+200)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-360) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+260)
Joshua Van is an exciting 22-year-old prospect in the UFC’s Flyweight division. He is 10-1 as a professional with eight knockout victories, including one in the UFC. His power at this division is legitimate; he rocks his opponents every time he steps in the cage. But he isn’t a one-hit quitter. He lands a ridiculous 9.08 significant strikes per minute in the cage. However, he does get hit more than he should at 5.77 significant strikes absorbed per minute. Additionally, he has two career submission victories and averages over one takedown per 15 minutes in the cage.
Charles Johnson just finds ways to win. There is nothing too flashy about his game, he is a good striker, and a good enough grappler to avoid trouble as evidenced by his decision loss to Mohammed Mokaev who was in control position for nearly 12 minutes. He fights a lot of close fights and has never lost inside the distance. He does a good job of upsetting the pace his opponents want to fight at and usually loses when his opponents can chain takedowns together. That is usually not Joshua Van’s game
FIGHT WINNER: Joshua Van
UFC BEST BET: Pass
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Jasmine Jasudavicius (-125) vs Fatima “The Archangel” Kline (+105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-395) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+280)
Jasmine Jasudavicius is a big and strong women’s flyweight fighter who wins when she can overpower her opponents. She is 4-2 in the UFC and has pedestrian striking numbers, however she compensates by being a relentless grappler. She is 4-1 in the UFC when she lands more takedowns than her opponents. In her last fight, she got her first finish in the UFC, an anaconda choke versus Priscila Cachoeira. Fatima Kline is making her UFC debut with a 6-0 record and a Cage Fury Women’s Strawweight Championship belt. She is also a high-level grappler and hascompeted in numerous professional BJJ matches. That said, she is fighting up a weight class on short notice versus a game opponent who will have a height, reach, and most certainly weight advantage when they step into the cage.
FIGHT WINNER: Jasmine Jasudavicius
UFC BEST BET: Jasudavicius (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1.
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Montel “Quik” Jackson (-142) vs Da’Mon “Da Monster” Blackshear (+120)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-230) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+175)
Montel Jackson has not fought in over a year, with three canceled bouts in that span. He has a 7-2 UFC record and is 13-2 as a professional. Despite nine trips to the octagon, he has not fought the toughest schedule, and four of his opponents are no longer in the UFC, and a fifth, Rani Yahya, is likely done in the organization soon. That said, all you can do is perform versus the opponents in front of you, and Jackson has done that superbly. He lands a ton of takedowns and hardly gets hit, only absorbing 1.41 significant strikes per minute in the cage. Generally, he is a position over submission fighter. Da’Mon Blackshear is 2-2-1 in the UFC and has fought some tough opponents. He is much more of a wild fighter in the cage than Montel Jackson, making this a stylistically interesting fight. Will Blackshear be able to bait Jackson into a brawl, or will Jackson slow the action down and control Blackshear? I think that the more dangerous fighter is Blackshear, and more often than not, that is a good jumping-off point for a successful fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Da’Mon Blackshear
UFC BEST BET: Da’Mon Blackshear (+120), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
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Luana Santos (-380) vs Mariya “Demonslayer” Agapova (+300)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+110) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-140)
At just 24 years old with a 7-1 professional record, Luana Santos has a shot to make some noise in the women’s bantamweight division if she stays on her current trajectory. She is 2-0 in the UFC with one knockout victory and most recently won via decision as a slight favorite versus Stephanie Egger, up a weight class at Bantamweight. Mariya Agapova’s UFC career has been more disappointment than triumph with her 2-3 record. However her fights have been exciting, All five of her UFC fights have been finished inside the distance. That said, I do not think her “kill or be killed” mindset will suit her well versus an emerging prospect like Santos.
FIGHT WINNER: Luana Santos
UFC BEST BET: Luana Santos to Win Inside the Distance (-110), Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1
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Josh Fremd (-105) vs Andre Petroski (-115)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+114) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-145)
With every Josh Fremd fight, I have less and less faith that he is a UFC-caliber fighter. He is 2-3 in the organization with a win over Sedrique Dumas, who was making his debut, and he also beat Jamie Pickett, who stuck around in the organization for WAY too long. He is relentless but not overly skilled in any one area. Andre Petroski, on the other hand, does not inspire much faith. He was a big underdog in his last fight but was looking good… until he knocked himself out on his opponent’s hip. That said, he has a strong grappling game and is dominant when he achieves top position. But he has lost via KO twice in the last nine months, which is cause for pause. Josh Fremd isn’t the hardest hitter in the middleweight division but versus a soft chin, a lot of damage can be done. That said, Fremd’s terrible 31% takedown defense rate versus a guy in Petroski who lands 1.44 takedowns per round in the UFC will likely be the story of this matchup.
FIGHT WINNER: Andre Petroski
UFC BEST BET: Andre Petroski (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
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Evan “The Phenom” Elder (-425) vs Darrius “Beast Mode” Flowers (+330)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+124) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)
I am unaware of the contract situation for either of these fighters, but my gut tells me this is a lose and leave the organization contest to kick off the card. Neither of these guys has been all that impressive under the UFC’s bright lights. Evan Elder is 1-2 in the organization, with his one win coming as a -300 favorite versus a fighter who is now 0-3 in the organization. Darrius Flowers won in Contender Series as a big underdog when his opponent sustained a shoulder injury after a slam. After that, he was submitted by Jake Matthews and lost a decision to a WAY over-the-hill Michael Johnson. Elder’s pre-UFC strength of schedule was terrible, Flowers actually did beat some guys with high level experience on his way up. Additionally, Flower has fought tougher UFC competition than Elder. All that said, if Flowers can avoid being taken down and controlled in this fight, he has a legitimate shot to pull the upset and save his UFC career. Considering Elder is just 2/9 on takedown attempts in the UFC, I think Flowers could turn some heads here. It’s a gross bet because he looked terrible in his last two fights, but I cannot wrap my head around Elder being this big of a favorite. Jake Matthews was only -275 when fighting “Beast Mode.”
FIGHT WINNER: Darrius Flowers
UFC BEST BET: Darrius Flowers +330, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3.3
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BEST BETS RECAP
- Gabriel Bonfim/Rose Namajunas (-118), Risk 1.18 Units to Win 1
- Salikhov OVER 41.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
- Parlay: Dober-Silva Fight NOT to Start Round 3/Namajunas to win (+130), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.3
- Julian Erosa (+190) vs Rodriguez , Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.9
- Cody Brundage (+145) vs Alhassan, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.45
- Jasudavicius (-125) vs Kline, Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
- Da’Mon Blackshear (+120) vs Jackson, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.2
- Luana Santos to Win Inside the Distance (-110), Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1
- Andre Petroski (-115) vs Fremd, Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
- Darrius Flowers (+330) vs Elder, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3.3
